Winter 2026-27 outlook by state
Pick your state for a plain-language read of what NOAA expects for December to February, plus a prep checklist you can print.
Outlook issued 15 Oct 2026Covers Dec 2026 to Feb 2027Page updated 16 Oct 2026
Every state at a glance
Select a state to open its summary and checklist. Each tag is a lean in broad odds, not a certainty.
- AlabamaTemp: Near normalPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- AlaskaTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Drier-leaning
- ArizonaTemp: Equal chancesPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- ArkansasTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- CaliforniaTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- ColoradoTemp: Equal chancesPrecip: Equal chances
- ConnecticutTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- DelawareTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- FloridaTemp: Near normalPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- GeorgiaTemp: Near normalPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- HawaiiTemp: Equal chancesPrecip: Drier-leaning
- IdahoTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Drier-leaning
- IllinoisTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- IndianaTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- IowaTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- KansasTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- KentuckyTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- LouisianaTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- MaineTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- MarylandTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- MassachusettsTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- MichiganTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- MinnesotaTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- MississippiTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- MissouriTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- MontanaTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Drier-leaning
- NebraskaTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- NevadaTemp: Equal chancesPrecip: Equal chances
- New HampshireTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- New JerseyTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- New MexicoTemp: Equal chancesPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- New YorkTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- North CarolinaTemp: Near normalPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- North DakotaTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- OhioTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- OklahomaTemp: Equal chancesPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- OregonTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- PennsylvaniaTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- Rhode IslandTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- South CarolinaTemp: Near normalPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- South DakotaTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- TennesseeTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- TexasTemp: Equal chancesPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- UtahTemp: Equal chancesPrecip: Equal chances
- VermontTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- VirginiaTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- WashingtonTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- Washington, D.C.Temp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Wetter-leaning
- West VirginiaTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- WisconsinTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Equal chances
- WyomingTemp: Warmer-leaningPrecip: Drier-leaning
How to read this outlook
This is the national picture under a very strong El Niño: a warmer-leaning north, a wetter-leaning southern tier from California to Florida and along the East Coast, and drought improvement across the Southwest, Southern Plains and Southeast. Drought risk rises in parts of the northern Rockies.
Warmer-leaning means warmer than average is the most likely of three outcomes, not that every week will be warm. Equal chances means the outlook has no lean either way. All of it is broad odds only.
Snowfall is not forecast seasonally, so neither this outlook nor any seasonal outlook gives snow totals for your state.
Sources
- NOAA: El Niño looms large over U.S. winter outlook (issued 15 Oct 2026)
- weather.gov for your local forecast and warnings from the National Weather Service